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Malkiya vs Bahrain SC — Premier League 2019

Malkiya
Malkiya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
Unknown 45+5', 45+2'
12/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malkiya53%
×Draw26%
Bahrain SC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malkiya
1.53
Bahrain SC
0.85

Malkiya creates 80% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Malkiya
0.88
Bahrain SC
0.83

allows per match

Malkiya
0.88
Bahrain SC
2.19

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par
Bahrain SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Bahrain SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw
79%
Malkiya or Bahrain SC
74%
Draw or Bahrain SC
47%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+
28%
Bahrain SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals
78%
Malkiya 2+ goals
45%
Malkiya 3+ goals
20%
Bahrain SC 1+ goals
57%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
21%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)
72%
Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Bahrain SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Bahrain SC defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bahrain SC attack 0.83 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malkiya scores more
53%
level
26%
Bahrain SC scores more
21%

Malkiya at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malkiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
45+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Malkiya 2–0 Bahrain SC

Malkiya beat Bahrain SC 2-0 in Premier League on December 26, 2025.

Goals: ? (45+2', 45+5').