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Bahrain SC vs Malkiya — Premier League 2019

Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Malkiya
Malkiya
H. Khalaf 77', 44'
I. Abdulwahab Al Bari 20'
U. Ibakeleki 8'
5/3/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bahrain SC35%
×Draw26%
Malkiya39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain SC
1.30
Malkiya
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bahrain SC
1.14
Malkiya
1.12

allows per match

Bahrain SC
1.65
Malkiya
1.47

finishing

Bahrain SC+0.00on par
Malkiya+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain SC ↓

Malkiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bahrain SC or draw
61%
Bahrain SC or Malkiya
74%
Draw or Malkiya
65%

Winning margin

Bahrain SC wins by 2+
15%
Malkiya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bahrain SC 1+ goals
73%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
37%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
14%
Malkiya 1+ goals
75%
Malkiya 2+ goals
40%
Malkiya 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
47%
Malkiya (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain SC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Malkiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain SC attack 1.14 + Malkiya defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Malkiya attack 1.12 + Bahrain SC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bahrain SC scores more
35%
level
26%
Malkiya scores more
39%

Malkiya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malkiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
U. Ibakeleki
20'
I. Abdulwahab Al Bari
44'
H. Khalaf
77'
H. Khalaf

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahrain SC vs Malkiya

Malkiya beat Bahrain SC 4-0 in Premier League on May 3, 2026.

Goals: U. Ibakeleki (8'), I. Abdulwahab Al Bari (20'), H. Khalaf (44', 77').