Malkiya 0–0 Al Shabab: Result & Stats

Malkiya

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Shabab

4/15/2025

Premier League · Round 14Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malkiya42%

×Draw30%

Al Shabab28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalkiyaExpected goals in this matchAl Shabab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.91

Malkiya

1.19

Al Shabab

0.91

Malkiya creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

0.88

creates per match

0.94

0.88

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Malkiya

0.88

Al Shabab

0.94

allows per match

Malkiya

0.88

Al Shabab

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Al Shabab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw

72%

Malkiya or Al Shabab

70%

Draw or Al Shabab

58%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+

18%

Al Shabab wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals

70%

Malkiya 2+ goals

33%

Malkiya 3+ goals

12%

Al Shabab 1+ goals

60%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

23%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)

60%

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Al Shabab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Shabab attack 0.94 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malkiya scores more

42%

level

30%

Al Shabab scores more

28%

Malkiya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malkiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff