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Al Shabab vs Malkiya — Premier League 2019

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Malkiya
Malkiya
S. M. Abbas 45'
11/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Shabab34%
×Draw28%
Malkiya38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
1.17
Malkiya
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
0.87
Malkiya
1.12

allows per match

Al Shabab
1.38
Malkiya
1.47

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Malkiya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Malkiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
62%
Al Shabab or Malkiya
72%
Draw or Malkiya
66%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
14%
Malkiya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
69%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
33%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
11%
Malkiya 1+ goals
71%
Malkiya 2+ goals
36%
Malkiya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
47%
Malkiya (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Malkiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 0.87 + Malkiya defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Malkiya attack 1.12 + Al Shabab defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Shabab scores more
34%
level
28%
Malkiya scores more
38%

Malkiya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malkiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
S. M. Abbas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Shabab 0–1 Malkiya

Malkiya beat Al Shabab 1-0 in Premier League on November 7, 2025.

Goals: S. M. Abbas (45').