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Malkiya vs Al Riffa — Premier League 2019

Malkiya
Malkiya
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al Riffa
Al Riffa
Sayed Adnan 70'
O. Marshal 2'
O. Marshal 21' (OG)
Ali Hasan Isa 17'
5/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malkiya26%
×Draw28%
Al Riffa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malkiya
0.93
Al Riffa
1.35

Al Riffa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 71 away

creates per match

Malkiya
0.88
Al Riffa
1.82

allows per match

Malkiya
0.88
Al Riffa
0.97

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par
Al Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Al Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw
54%
Malkiya or Al Riffa
72%
Draw or Al Riffa
74%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+
9%
Al Riffa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals
61%
Malkiya 2+ goals
24%
Malkiya 3+ goals
7%
Al Riffa 1+ goals
74%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
39%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)
36%
Al Riffa (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Al Riffa away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Al Riffa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al Riffa attack 1.82 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malkiya scores more
26%
level
28%
Al Riffa scores more
46%

Al Riffa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
O. Marshal
17'
Ali Hasan Isa
21'
O. MarshalOwn goal
70'
Sayed Adnan
Malkiya
Al
Ahmed Al Dakheel
Manager: Ahmed Al Dakheel
Carlos Inarejos
Manager: Carlos Inarejos

Premier League: Malkiya 2–2 Al Riffa

Malkiya and Al Riffa drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 22, 2025.

Goals: O. Marshal (2', 21' o.g.), Ali Hasan Isa (17'), Sayed Adnan (70').

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.