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Al Riffa vs Malkiya — Premier League 2019

Al Riffa
Al Riffa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Malkiya
Malkiya
Hazaa Ali 59'
Ali Madan 29'
Y. Arfaoui 28'
5/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Riffa53%
×Draw24%
Malkiya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riffa
1.69
Malkiya
1.03

Al Riffa creates 64% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Riffa
1.90
Malkiya
1.12

allows per match

Al Riffa
0.93
Malkiya
1.47

finishing

Al Riffa+0.00on par
Malkiya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riffa ↓

Malkiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Riffa or draw
77%
Al Riffa or Malkiya
76%
Draw or Malkiya
47%

Winning margin

Al Riffa wins by 2+
29%
Malkiya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Riffa 1+ goals
82%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
50%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
24%
Malkiya 1+ goals
64%
Malkiya 2+ goals
28%
Malkiya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Riffa (draw refunded)
70%
Malkiya (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riffa at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 70 matches

Malkiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riffa attack 1.90 + Malkiya defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Malkiya attack 1.12 + Al Riffa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Riffa scores more
53%
level
24%
Malkiya scores more
23%

Al Riffa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Y. Arfaoui
29'
Ali Madan
59'
Hazaa Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Riffa vs Malkiya

Al Riffa beat Malkiya 2-1 in Premier League on May 8, 2021.

Goals: Y. Arfaoui (28'), Ali Madan (29'), Hazaa Ali (59').

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.