Malisheva 0–1 Dukagjini: Result & Stats | Superliga

Malisheva

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dukagjini

8/31/2025

Superliga · Round 3Stadiumi Liman Gegaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Malisheva47%

×Draw25%

Dukagjini28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalishevaExpected goals in this matchDukagjini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.12

Malisheva

1.54

Dukagjini

1.12

Malisheva creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 107 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

1.27

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Malisheva

1.57

Dukagjini

0.97

allows per match

Malisheva

1.27

Dukagjini

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malisheva+0.00on par

Dukagjini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malisheva ↓

Dukagjini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Malisheva or draw

72%

Malisheva or Dukagjini

75%

Draw or Dukagjini

53%

Winning margin

Malisheva wins by 2+

24%

Dukagjini wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malisheva 1+ goals

79%

Malisheva 2+ goals

45%

Malisheva 3+ goals

20%

Dukagjini 1+ goals

67%

Dukagjini 2+ goals

31%

Dukagjini 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Malisheva (draw refunded)

63%

Dukagjini (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malisheva at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 90 matches

Dukagjini away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malisheva attack 1.57 + Dukagjini defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dukagjini attack 0.97 + Malisheva defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Malisheva scores more

47%

level

25%

Dukagjini scores more

28%

Malisheva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff