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Dukagjini vs Malisheva — Superliga 2019

Dukagjini
Dukagjini
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Malisheva
Malisheva
11/2/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Dukagjini36%
×Draw28%
Malisheva35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukagjini
1.18
Malisheva
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dukagjini
1.09
Malisheva
1.31

allows per match

Dukagjini
1.00
Malisheva
1.27

finishing

Dukagjini+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukagjini ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dukagjini or draw
65%
Dukagjini or Malisheva
72%
Draw or Malisheva
64%

Winning margin

Dukagjini wins by 2+
15%
Malisheva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dukagjini 1+ goals
69%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
33%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
12%
Malisheva 1+ goals
69%
Malisheva 2+ goals
32%
Malisheva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dukagjini (draw refunded)
51%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukagjini at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 106 matches

Malisheva away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukagjini attack 1.09 + Malisheva defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Malisheva attack 1.31 + Dukagjini defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dukagjini scores more
36%
level
28%
Malisheva scores more
35%

Dukagjini at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukagjini vs Malisheva

Malisheva beat Dukagjini 2-1 in Superliga on November 2, 2025.