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Mali vs Ivory Coast — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Mali
Mali
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coastadvanced
2/3/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Quarter-finalsStade de Bouaké

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mali47%
×Draw27%
Ivory Coast27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
1.44
Ivory Coast
1.02

Mali creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mali
1.60
Ivory Coast
1.45

allows per match

Mali
0.60
Ivory Coast
1.27

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Ivory Coast →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mali or draw
73%
Mali or Ivory Coast
73%
Draw or Ivory Coast
53%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
23%
Ivory Coast wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
76%
Mali 2+ goals
42%
Mali 3+ goals
18%
Ivory Coast 1+ goals
64%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
27%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
64%
Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Ivory Coast away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 1.60 + Ivory Coast defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ivory Coast attack 1.45 + Mali defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mali scores more
47%
level
27%
Ivory Coast scores more
27%

Mali at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Mali 1–1 Ivory Coast

Mali and Ivory Coast drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Bouaké in Bouaké.