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Ivory Coast vs Mali — Friendlies 2026

Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
CANC
19:00
Mali
Mali
9/12/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ivory Coast59%
×Draw24%
Mali17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ivory Coast
1.67
Mali
0.75

Ivory Coast creates 123% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ivory Coast
2.27
Mali
0.50

allows per match

Ivory Coast
1.00
Mali
1.06

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par
Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Mali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw
83%
Ivory Coast or Mali
76%
Draw or Mali
41%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+
33%
Mali wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals
81%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
50%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
23%
Mali 1+ goals
53%
Mali 2+ goals
17%
Mali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
78%
Mali (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Mali away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 2.27 + Mali defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mali attack 0.50 + Ivory Coast defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ivory Coast scores more
59%
level
24%
Mali scores more
17%

Ivory Coast at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ivory Coast face Mali (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Ivory Coast hosting Mali. Match starts September 12, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ivory Coast host Mali at Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.