Mali Coura 1–1 Djoliba: Result & Stats

Mali Coura

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Djoliba

5/13/2026

Première Division · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mali Coura17%

×Draw28%

Djoliba55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mali CouraExpected goals in this matchDjoliba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.61

1.35

Mali Coura

0.61

Djoliba

1.35

Djoliba creates 121% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 95 away

0.69

creates per match

1.39

1.31

allows per match

0.54

creates per match

Mali Coura

0.69

Djoliba

1.39

allows per match

Mali Coura

1.31

Djoliba

0.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mali Coura+0.00on par

Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali Coura ↓

Djoliba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–119%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mali Coura or draw

45%

Mali Coura or Djoliba

72%

Draw or Djoliba

83%

Winning margin

Mali Coura wins by 2+

4%

Djoliba wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mali Coura 1+ goals

46%

Mali Coura 2+ goals

13%

Mali Coura 3+ goals

2%

Djoliba 1+ goals

74%

Djoliba 2+ goals

39%

Djoliba 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mali Coura (draw refunded)

23%

Djoliba (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali Coura at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali Coura attack 0.69 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.61

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Mali Coura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mali Coura scores more

17%

level

28%

Djoliba scores more

55%

Djoliba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff