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Djoliba vs Mali Coura — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mali Coura
Mali Coura
1/4/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 7Complex Sportif Heremakono

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djoliba53%
×Draw29%
Mali Coura19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.33
Mali Coura
0.67

Djoliba creates 99% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Mali Coura
0.85

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Mali Coura
1.08

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Mali Coura+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Mali Coura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
81%
Djoliba or Mali Coura
71%
Draw or Mali Coura
47%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
25%
Mali Coura wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
74%
Djoliba 2+ goals
38%
Djoliba 3+ goals
15%
Mali Coura 1+ goals
49%
Mali Coura 2+ goals
15%
Mali Coura 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
74%
Mali Coura (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

Mali Coura away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Mali Coura defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mali Coura attack 0.85 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Djoliba scores more
53%
level
29%
Mali Coura scores more
19%

Djoliba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djoliba vs Mali Coura

Djoliba beat Mali Coura 2-1 in Première Division on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Complex Sportif Heremakono in Bamako.