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Malaysia vs Cape Verde Islands — Friendlies 2026

Malaysia
Malaysia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands
Heriberto Tavares 55'
D. Rocha Livramento 48', 35'
6/3/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Bukit Jalil National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Malaysia46%
×Draw25%
Cape Verde Islands29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaysia
1.59
Cape Verde Islands
1.22

Malaysia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

creates per match

Malaysia
2.27
Cape Verde Islands
1.82

allows per match

Malaysia
0.62
Cape Verde Islands
0.91

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par
Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Cape Verde Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw
71%
Malaysia or Cape Verde Islands
75%
Draw or Cape Verde Islands
54%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+
23%
Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals
80%
Malaysia 2+ goals
47%
Malaysia 3+ goals
21%
Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
70%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
34%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)
61%
Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Cape Verde Islands away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.27 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.82 + Malaysia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malaysia scores more
46%
level
25%
Cape Verde Islands scores more
29%

Malaysia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
D. Rocha Livramento
48'
D. Rocha Livramento
55'
Heriberto Tavares
Malaysia
Cape
P. Cklamovski
Manager: P. Cklamovski
Bubista
Manager: Bubista

Match Recap: Malaysia vs Cape Verde Islands

Cape Verde Islands beat Malaysia 3-0 in Friendlies on June 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Rocha Livramento (35', 48'), Heriberto Tavares (55').

The match was played at Bukit Jalil National Stadium in Kuala Lumpur.