Malaysia 1–1 Cape Verde Islands: Result & Stats

Malaysia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cape Verde Islands

Paulo Josué 80'

Sidny Lopes Cabral 8'

5/29/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Stadium Bola Sepak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Malaysia46%

×Draw25%

Cape Verde Islands29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalaysiaExpected goals in this matchCape Verde Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.22

Malaysia

1.59

Cape Verde Islands

1.22

Malaysia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

2.27

creates per match

1.82

0.62

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Malaysia

2.27

Cape Verde Islands

1.82

allows per match

Malaysia

0.62

Cape Verde Islands

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Cape Verde Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw

71%

Malaysia or Cape Verde Islands

75%

Draw or Cape Verde Islands

54%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+

23%

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals

80%

Malaysia 2+ goals

47%

Malaysia 3+ goals

21%

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals

70%

Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals

34%

Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)

61%

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Cape Verde Islands away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.27 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.82 + Malaysia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malaysia scores more

46%

level

25%

Cape Verde Islands scores more

29%

Malaysia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Sidny Lopes Cabral

46'

Stéphane Cueni← Ilano Silva Timas

46'

Duk← Ryan Mendes

59'

Gabriel Palmero

65'

Ruben Pina← Jovane Cabral

65'

Alvin Fortes← Heriberto Tavares

66'

Bruno Almeida

75'

Elson Mendes Da Silva← Yuran Fernandes

80'

Paulo Josué

85'

Jordan Semedo Varela← David Moreira

Possession

Statistics

MalaysiaCape

Overview

50%Possession50%

4Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

8On Target4

9Off Target8

Passing

50%Possession50%

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4