Malaga W vs Edf Logrono W — Primera División Femenina 2018
Primera División Femenina · Round 21Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Malaga W41%
Edf Logrono W36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Malaga W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches
Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Malaga W attack 1.33 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.68
Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.56
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Malaga W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Malaga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Barcelona W
Real Madrid W
Real Sociedad W
Granad. Tenerife W
Atletico Madrid W
Granada
Athletic Club W
Sevilla W
FC Levante Badalona W
Madrid CFF W
Espanyol W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Eibar WEdf Logrono W
Alhama W
Levante WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Malaga W host Edf Logrono W on Wednesday, 13 February 2019 at 15:15. The match is part of the Primera División Femenina 2018/2019 season.
Malaga W 1 – 1 Edf Logrono W
Malaga W and Edf Logrono W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on February 13, 2019.
Goals: Jade Boho (25'), Leti (49').
The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga).