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Edf Logrono W vs Malaga W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Edf Logrono W
Edf Logrono W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Malaga W
Malaga W
10/21/2018Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 6Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas (Logroño)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Edf Logrono W55%
×Draw23%
Malaga W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edf Logrono W
1.81
Malaga W
1.06

Edf Logrono W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 15 away

creates per match

Edf Logrono W
1.34
Malaga W
0.40

allows per match

Edf Logrono W
1.72
Malaga W
2.27

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par
Malaga W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Malaga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw
78%
Edf Logrono W or Malaga W
77%
Draw or Malaga W
45%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+
31%
Malaga W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals
84%
Edf Logrono W 2+ goals
54%
Edf Logrono W 3+ goals
27%
Malaga W 1+ goals
65%
Malaga W 2+ goals
29%
Malaga W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)
71%
Malaga W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

Malaga W away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.34 + Malaga W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Malaga W attack 0.40 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more
55%
level
23%
Malaga W scores more
22%

Edf Logrono W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Edf Logrono W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edf Logrono W vs Malaga W

Malaga W beat Edf Logrono W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas (Logroño).