Malaga 0–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

8/16/2021

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Malaga45%

×Draw28%

Mirandes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.96

Malaga

1.32

Mirandes

0.96

Malaga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 149 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

0.91

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

73%

Malaga or Mirandes

72%

Draw or Mirandes

55%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

21%

Mirandes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

73%

Malaga 2+ goals

38%

Malaga 3+ goals

15%

Mirandes 1+ goals

62%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

62%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malaga scores more

45%

level

28%

Mirandes scores more

27%

Malaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Juande Rivas

Malaga · D

8.5

Match Events

46'

Víctor Meseguer← Brugui

54'

Víctor Meseguer

59'

Álex López← César Gelabert

67'

Jairo Samperio← Roberto Fernández

67'

B. Cufré← Kevin Villodres

83'

Genaro Rodríguez← Paulino

86'

Odei Onaindia

88'

Luis Muñoz

88'

Loren Zúñiga← Brandon Thomas

89'

H. Hassan← Simón Moreno

90+5'

Haissem HassanGoal cancelled

90+6'

A. Arroyo← Sergio Carreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaMirandes

Overview

43%Possession57%

23Total Shots6

7Corners8

13Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots6

5On Target2

11Off Target2

7Blocked2

14Inside Box2

9Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

336Total Passes461

263Accurate Passes378

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2