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Malaga vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
Jozabed 16'
E. Jirka 53'
10/25/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Malaga45%
×Draw28%
Mirandes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.32
Mirandes
0.96

Malaga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 149 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
73%
Malaga or Mirandes
72%
Draw or Mirandes
55%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
21%
Mirandes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
73%
Malaga 2+ goals
38%
Malaga 3+ goals
15%
Mirandes 1+ goals
62%
Mirandes 2+ goals
25%
Mirandes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
62%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malaga scores more
45%
level
28%
Mirandes scores more
27%

Malaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Iván CaleroMalagaMalaga · M
7.3

Match Events

16'
Jozabed↳ José Matos
17'
MatosPenalty confirmed
53'
E. Jirka↳ Pacheco
61'
P. Chavarría← Jozabed
61'
Y. Rahmani← Jairo Samperio
66'
Ramón Enríquez← Juande Rivas
66'
Luis Muñoz← Cristian Rodríguez
71'
Juan Berrocal
72'
N. Djouahra← M. Ezzarfani
76'
Erik JirkaGoal cancelled
83'
Antonio Caballero← Pablo Martínez
86'
David Larrubia← Caye Quintana
90'
Victor Gómez
90+3'
Andrés Mohedano← Pacheco

Possession

44%Malaga

Shots

6Malaga

Pass accuracy

48%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaMirandes
Overview
44%Possession56%
6Total Shots12
2Corners6
17Fouls20
Shots
6Total Shots12
3On Target4
2Off Target3
1Blocked5
3Inside Box4
3Outside Box8
Passing
44%Possession56%
333Total Passes418
231Accurate Passes314
69%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls20
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Segunda División: Malaga 1–1 Mirandes

Malaga and Mirandes drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 25, 2020.

Goals: Jozabed (16'), E. Jirka (53').

Mirandes controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.