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Malaga vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
A. Sadiku 65'
Adrián 34' (pen)
Martín Merquelanz 79' (pen)
Maranhão 54'
1/26/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Malaga45%
×Draw28%
Mirandes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.32
Mirandes
0.96

Malaga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 149 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
73%
Malaga or Mirandes
72%
Draw or Mirandes
55%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
21%
Mirandes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
73%
Malaga 2+ goals
38%
Malaga 3+ goals
15%
Mirandes 1+ goals
62%
Mirandes 2+ goals
25%
Mirandes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
62%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malaga scores more
45%
level
28%
Mirandes scores more
27%

Malaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
H. BoussefianeMalagaMalaga · M
8.0

Match Events

6'
Enric Franquesa
33'
Carlos Julio Martinez
34'
AdriánPenalty
38'
Hicham Boussefiane
50'
A. González← C. Martínez
54'
Maranhão
58'
Antoñín Cortés← Renato Santos
65'
A. Sadiku↳ H. Boussefiane
66'
Mario Barco← Joaquín Muñoz
75'
Dani Pacheco← H. Boussefiane
79'
Martín MerquelanzPenalty
81'
Julio Martínez← Luis Muñoz
85'
Álvaro Peña← Maranhão
89'
Diego Gonzalez

Possession

56%Malaga

Shots

16Malaga

Pass accuracy

51%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaMirandes
Overview
56%Possession44%
16Total Shots13
7Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots13
4On Target3
7Off Target6
5Blocked4
10Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
422Total Passes327
327Accurate Passes239
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Segunda División: Malaga 2–2 Mirandes

Malaga and Mirandes drew 2-2 in Segunda División on January 26, 2020.

Goals: Adrián (34' pen), Maranhão (54'), A. Sadiku (65'), Martín Merquelanz (79' pen).

Malaga controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.