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Malaga vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
3/31/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Malaga54%
×Draw26%
Linares Deportivo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.54
Linares Deportivo
0.85

Malaga creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.26
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Malaga
0.47
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
79%
Malaga or Linares Deportivo
74%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
46%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
28%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
79%
Malaga 2+ goals
45%
Malaga 3+ goals
20%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
57%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
21%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
72%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.26 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Malaga defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Malaga scores more
54%
level
26%
Linares Deportivo scores more
21%

Malaga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Malaga 1–1 Linares Deportivo

Malaga and Linares Deportivo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.