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Linares Deportivo vs Malaga — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Malaga
Malaga
9/24/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linares Deportivo33%
×Draw30%
Malaga37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.01
Malaga
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
1.18
Malaga
1.42

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.76
Malaga
0.84

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Malaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
63%
Linares Deportivo or Malaga
70%
Draw or Malaga
67%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
12%
Malaga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
64%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
27%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
8%
Malaga 1+ goals
66%
Malaga 2+ goals
30%
Malaga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
47%
Malaga (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Malaga away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.18 + Malaga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Malaga attack 1.42 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
33%
level
30%
Malaga scores more
37%

Malaga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Linares Deportivo 0–1 Malaga

Malaga beat Linares Deportivo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.