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Málaga II vs Loja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Loja
Loja
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Málaga II67%
×Draw19%
Loja14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
2.13
Loja
0.83

Málaga II creates 157% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 29 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Loja
0.97

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Loja
2.24

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
86%
Málaga II or Loja
81%
Draw or Loja
33%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
43%
Loja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
88%
Málaga II 2+ goals
63%
Málaga II 3+ goals
35%
Loja 1+ goals
56%
Loja 2+ goals
20%
Loja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
83%
Loja (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.13

Loja attack 0.97 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Málaga II scores more
67%
level
19%
Loja scores more
14%

Málaga II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Málaga II vs Loja

Málaga II and Loja drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.