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Loja vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
2/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 27Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja41%
×Draw26%
Málaga II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.39
Málaga II
1.23

Loja creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 92 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Loja or draw
67%
Loja or Málaga II
74%
Draw or Málaga II
59%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
19%
Málaga II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
75%
Loja 2+ goals
40%
Loja 3+ goals
16%
Málaga II 1+ goals
71%
Málaga II 2+ goals
35%
Málaga II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
55%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Loja scores more
41%
level
26%
Málaga II scores more
33%

Loja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Loja 2–1 Málaga II

Loja beat Málaga II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.