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Málaga II vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Málaga II86%
×Draw10%
Atlético Melilla4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
3.10
Atlético Melilla
0.58

Málaga II creates 434% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
96%
Málaga II or Atlético Melilla
90%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
14%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
68%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
95%
Málaga II 2+ goals
81%
Málaga II 3+ goals
58%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
44%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
12%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
95%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.10

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Málaga II scores more
86%
level
10%
Atlético Melilla scores more
4%

Málaga II at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Málaga II 3 – 0 Atlético Melilla

Málaga II beat Atlético Melilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.