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Atlético Melilla vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
11/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla21%
×Draw26%
Málaga II54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Melilla
0.84
Málaga II
1.53

Málaga II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Atlético Melilla
0.59
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Atlético Melilla
1.71
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw
46%
Atlético Melilla or Málaga II
74%
Draw or Málaga II
79%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
7%
Málaga II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
5%
Málaga II 1+ goals
78%
Málaga II 2+ goals
45%
Málaga II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
28%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.84

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more
21%
level
26%
Málaga II scores more
54%

Málaga II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Melilla 0 – 1 Málaga II

Málaga II beat Atlético Melilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.