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Málaga II vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Málaga II56%
×Draw25%
Arenas Armilla19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.59
Arenas Armilla
0.81

Málaga II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 68 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
81%
Málaga II or Arenas Armilla
75%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
44%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
30%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
80%
Málaga II 2+ goals
47%
Málaga II 3+ goals
21%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
56%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
19%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
75%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.59

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Málaga II scores more
56%
level
25%
Arenas Armilla scores more
19%

Málaga II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 1–0 Arenas Armilla

Málaga II beat Arenas Armilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.