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Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla36%
×Draw27%
Málaga II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
1.20
Málaga II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 92 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
63%
Arenas Armilla or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
64%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
15%
Málaga II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
70%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
34%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
12%
Málaga II 1+ goals
71%
Málaga II 2+ goals
35%
Málaga II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
49%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
36%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
37%

Málaga II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 0–1 Málaga II

Málaga II beat Arenas Armilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.