Málaga II 2–0 Alhaurín: Result & Stats

Málaga II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alhaurín

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Málaga II67%

×Draw20%

Alhaurín14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Málaga IIExpected goals in this matchAlhaurín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.83

Málaga II

2.12

Alhaurín

0.83

Málaga II creates 155% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 43 away

2.03

creates per match

0.98

0.69

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Málaga II

2.03

Alhaurín

0.98

allows per match

Málaga II

0.69

Alhaurín

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Alhaurín →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw

86%

Málaga II or Alhaurín

80%

Draw or Alhaurín

33%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+

43%

Alhaurín wins by 2+

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals

88%

Málaga II 2+ goals

62%

Málaga II 3+ goals

35%

Alhaurín 1+ goals

56%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

20%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)

83%

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Málaga II scores more

67%

level

20%

Alhaurín scores more

14%

Málaga II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff