Alhaurín 2–2 Málaga II: Result & Stats

Alhaurín

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Málaga II

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Estadio Municipal Los Manantiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alhaurín29%

×Draw27%

Málaga II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlhaurínExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.36

Alhaurín

1.05

Málaga II

1.36

Málaga II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 92 away

1.00

creates per match

1.35

1.38

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Alhaurín

1.00

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Alhaurín

1.38

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurín ↓

Málaga II →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alhaurín or draw

56%

Alhaurín or Málaga II

73%

Draw or Málaga II

71%

Winning margin

Alhaurín wins by 2+

11%

Málaga II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Alhaurín 1+ goals

65%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

28%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

Málaga II 1+ goals

74%

Málaga II 2+ goals

39%

Málaga II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

40%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alhaurín at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurín attack 1.00 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Alhaurín defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alhaurín scores more

29%

level

27%

Málaga II scores more

44%

Málaga II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff