Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malaga City vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
1/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Deportivo E.López Cuenca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Malaga City24%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
0.89
Juventud Torremolinos
1.40

Juventud Torremolinos creates 57% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
51%
Malaga City or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
76%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
8%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
59%
Malaga City 2+ goals
22%
Malaga City 3+ goals
6%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
75%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
41%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
33%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Malaga City scores more
24%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
49%

Juventud Torremolinos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaga City 0 – 1 Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Malaga City 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo E.López Cuenca in Nerja.