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Juventud Torremolinos vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos64%
×Draw22%
Malaga City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.80
Malaga City
0.67

Juventud Torremolinos creates 169% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
87%
Juventud Torremolinos or Malaga City
78%
Draw or Malaga City
36%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
38%
Malaga City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
83%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
54%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
27%
Malaga City 1+ goals
49%
Malaga City 2+ goals
15%
Malaga City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
83%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.80

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
64%
level
22%
Malaga City scores more
13%

Juventud Torremolinos at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventud Torremolinos 1 – 0 Malaga City

Juventud Torremolinos beat Malaga City 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.