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Malaga City vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
3/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga City80%
×Draw13%
Huracán Melilla7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
2.81
Huracán Melilla
0.73

Malaga City creates 285% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 15 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Huracán Melilla
0.20

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Huracán Melilla
4.67

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Huracán Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
93%
Malaga City or Huracán Melilla
87%
Draw or Huracán Melilla
20%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
59%
Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
94%
Malaga City 2+ goals
76%
Malaga City 3+ goals
52%
Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
52%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
17%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
92%
Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.81

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Malaga City scores more
80%
level
13%
Huracán Melilla scores more
7%

Malaga City at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Malaga City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaga City 1 – 1 Huracán Melilla

Malaga City and Huracán Melilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla in Nerja.