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Huracán Melilla vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Malaga City
Malaga City
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla22%
×Draw22%
Malaga City56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
1.15
Malaga City
1.97

Malaga City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
44%
Huracán Melilla or Malaga City
78%
Draw or Malaga City
78%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
8%
Malaga City wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
68%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
32%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
11%
Malaga City 1+ goals
86%
Malaga City 2+ goals
58%
Malaga City 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
28%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
22%
level
22%
Malaga City scores more
56%

Malaga City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Malaga City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huracán Melilla 0 – 2 Malaga City

Malaga City beat Huracán Melilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.