Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malaga City vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Almería II
Almería II
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malaga City31%
×Draw27%
Almería II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
1.13
Almería II
1.39

Almería II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 75 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
57%
Malaga City or Almería II
73%
Draw or Almería II
69%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
12%
Almería II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
68%
Malaga City 2+ goals
31%
Malaga City 3+ goals
11%
Almería II 1+ goals
75%
Almería II 2+ goals
40%
Almería II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
42%
Almería II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Almería II attack 1.51 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga City scores more
31%
level
27%
Almería II scores more
43%

Almería II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Malaga City 2–2 Almería II

Malaga City and Almería II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla in Nerja.