Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almería II vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Almería II68%
×Draw20%
Malaga City12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
2.02
Malaga City
0.70

Almería II creates 189% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
88%
Almería II or Malaga City
80%
Draw or Malaga City
32%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
43%
Malaga City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
87%
Almería II 2+ goals
60%
Almería II 3+ goals
33%
Malaga City 1+ goals
50%
Malaga City 2+ goals
16%
Malaga City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
85%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.02

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Almería II scores more
68%
level
20%
Malaga City scores more
12%

Almería II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Almería II 6–0 Malaga City

Almería II beat Malaga City 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.