Malacky 0–0 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Malacky

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

11/5/2023

3. liga - West · West - 14Futbalový štadión FC Malacky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Malacky48%

×Draw26%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalackyExpected goals in this matchBaník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.01

Malacky

1.48

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.01

Malacky creates 47% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

1.54

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Malacky

1.54

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.90

allows per match

Malacky

1.11

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malacky+0.00on par

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacky ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Malacky or draw

74%

Malacky or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

74%

Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

52%

Winning margin

Malacky wins by 2+

24%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Malacky 1+ goals

77%

Malacky 2+ goals

43%

Malacky 3+ goals

19%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

64%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

27%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malacky (draw refunded)

65%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacky at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacky attack 1.54 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 0.90 + Malacky defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Malacky scores more

48%

level

26%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

26%

Malacky at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malacky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff