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Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Malacky — 3. liga - West 2020

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malacky
Malacky
11/16/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Futbalový štadión OFK Baník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom56%
×Draw24%
Malacky21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.75
Malacky
0.96

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom creates 82% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.97
Malacky
1.18

allows per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.74
Malacky
1.53

finishing

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par
Malacky+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ↓

Malacky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw
79%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or Malacky
76%
Draw or Malacky
44%

Winning margin

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+
31%
Malacky wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals
83%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals
52%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals
25%
Malacky 1+ goals
62%
Malacky 2+ goals
25%
Malacky 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)
73%
Malacky (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Malacky away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.97 + Malacky defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Malacky attack 1.18 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more
56%
level
24%
Malacky scores more
21%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Malacky

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom beat Malacky 2-1 in 3. liga - West on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión OFK Baník in Lehota pod Vtáčnikom.