Makedonija GjP 1–0 Sileks: Result & Stats | Cup

Makedonija GjP

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sileks

11/8/2023

Cup · Quarter-finalsStadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Makedonija GjP26%

×Draw24%

Sileks49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchSileks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.69

Makedonija GjP

1.17

Sileks

1.69

Sileks creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.57

creates per match

2.08

1.29

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.57

Sileks

2.08

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.29

Sileks

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Sileks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

51%

Makedonija GjP or Sileks

76%

Draw or Sileks

74%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

11%

Sileks wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

69%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

33%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

11%

Sileks 1+ goals

82%

Sileks 2+ goals

50%

Sileks 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

35%

Sileks (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sileks away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.57 + Sileks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sileks attack 2.08 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

26%

level

24%

Sileks scores more

49%

Sileks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff