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Makedonija GjP vs Renova — First League 2019

Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
CANC
00:00
Renova
Renova
3/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Makedonija GjP43%
×Draw27%
Renova30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makedonija GjP
1.39
Renova
1.11

Makedonija GjP creates 25% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 52 away

creates per match

Makedonija GjP
1.36
Renova
1.19

allows per match

Makedonija GjP
1.03
Renova
1.42

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par
Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Renova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw
70%
Makedonija GjP or Renova
73%
Draw or Renova
57%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
20%
Renova wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
75%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
40%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
16%
Renova 1+ goals
67%
Renova 2+ goals
30%
Renova 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
59%
Renova (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Renova away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Renova defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Renova attack 1.19 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more
43%
level
27%
Renova scores more
30%

Makedonija GjP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Makedonija GjP face Renova (First League)

First League returns with Makedonija GjP hosting Renova. Match starts March 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Makedonija GjP host Renova at Stadion Gorče Petrov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.