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Makedonija GjP vs KF Gostivari — First League 2019

Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
9/17/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Makedonija GjP43%
×Draw29%
KF Gostivari28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makedonija GjP
1.25
KF Gostivari
0.95

Makedonija GjP creates 32% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 31 away

creates per match

Makedonija GjP
1.36
KF Gostivari
0.87

allows per match

Makedonija GjP
1.03
KF Gostivari
1.13

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw
72%
Makedonija GjP or KF Gostivari
71%
Draw or KF Gostivari
57%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
19%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
71%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
36%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
13%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
61%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
25%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
61%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more
43%
level
29%
KF Gostivari scores more
28%

Makedonija GjP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Makedonija GjP 3–0 KF Gostivari

Makedonija GjP beat KF Gostivari 3-0 in First League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.