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KF Gostivari vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
12/9/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KF Gostivari47%
×Draw26%
Makedonija GjP26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.46
Makedonija GjP
1.02

KF Gostivari creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 94 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.27
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.91
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
74%
KF Gostivari or Makedonija GjP
74%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
53%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
23%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
77%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
43%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
18%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
64%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
27%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
64%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.27 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + KF Gostivari defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
47%
level
26%
Makedonija GjP scores more
26%

KF Gostivari at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: KF Gostivari 1–0 Makedonija GjP

KF Gostivari beat Makedonija GjP 1-0 in First League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.