Mainz 05 U19 0–0 Borussia Dortmund U19

Mainz 05 U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

2/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 4Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Mainz 05 U1937%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mainz 05 U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

2.03

Mainz 05 U19

1.89

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 65 away

2.60

creates per match

2.62

1.44

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19

2.60

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.62

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19

1.44

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw

58%

Mainz 05 U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

63%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

19%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

85%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

56%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

29%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

60%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.62 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

42%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Ngambia← P. Kegni

59'

M. Albert← T. Etcibasi

74'

A. Niziołek← D. Ngambia

74'

T. Degener← S. Inácio

84'

Mats Preßler← S. Touré

84'

Mika Preßler← J. Ugljanin

84'

S. Horozović← Raúl König

88'

A. Latifi← F. Engel

90+1'

V. Cena← N. Cherny

Mainz

Borussia

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Manager: J. Kirchhoff

84'▲Mats Preßler←▼S. Touré

84'▲Mika Preßler←▼J. Ugljanin

84'▲S. Horozović←▼Raúl König

88'▲A. Latifi←▼F. Engel

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

PreßlerPreßlerHorozovićLatifiMustaphaRahmannÖzçelik

Manager: M. Tullberg

46'▲D. Ngambia←▼P. Kegni

59'▲M. Albert←▼T. Etcibasi

74'▲A. Niziołek←▼D. Ngambia

74'▲T. Degener←▼S. Inácio

90+1'▲V. Cena←▼N. Cherny

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

NgambiaAlbertNiziołekDegenerCenaHeldMahjoubi