Borussia Dortmund U19 5–1 Mainz 05 U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Mainz 05 U19

M. Kaba 81'

Ousmane Diallo 51'

T. Etcibasi 22'

N. Cherny 19'

M. Albert 6'

Raúl König 55' (pen)

4/6/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 9Stadion Rote Erde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1948%

×Draw21%

Mainz 05 U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.66

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.12

Mainz 05 U19

1.66

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 75 away

3.00

creates per match

2.40

0.92

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

3.00

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.92

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

69%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Mainz 05 U19

79%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

52%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

28%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

62%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

35%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

81%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

49%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.92 · 71 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 3.00 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 2.12

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

31%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

19'

22'

51'

55'

Raúl KönigPenalty

57'

A. Niziołek← P. Kegni

57'

A. Latifi← K. Potulski

57'

D. Imafidon← T. Weileder

57'

J. Mustapha← S. Touré

65'

S. Inácio← Ousmane Diallo

65'

W. Rashidi← T. Degener

78'

L. Reggiani← V. Cena

78'

O. Błaszczyk← M. Albert

78'

J. Wegjan← Mika Preßler

78'

Mats Preßler← F. Engel

81'

M. Kaba

Borussia

Mainz

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Albert

⚽

▼

Diallo

Manager: M. Tullberg

57'▲A. Niziołek←▼P. Kegni

65'▲S. Inácio←▼Ousmane Diallo

65'▲W. Rashidi←▼T. Degener

78'▲L. Reggiani←▼V. Cena

78'▲O. Błaszczyk←▼M. Albert

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

NiziołekInácioRashidiReggianiBłaszczykMahjoubiAveresch

Manager: J. Kirchhoff

57'▲A. Latifi←▼K. Potulski

57'▲D. Imafidon←▼T. Weileder

57'▲J. Mustapha←▼S. Touré

78'▲J. Wegjan←▼Mika Preßler

78'▲Mats Preßler←▼F. Engel

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

LatifiImafidonMustaphaWegjanPreßler

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Mainz 05 U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Mainz 05 U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Albert (6'), N. Cherny (19'), T. Etcibasi (22'), Ousmane Diallo (51'), Raúl König (55' pen), M. Kaba (81').

The match was played at Stadion Rote Erde in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Mainz 05 U19