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Mainz 05 U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
J. Kusi 52'
F. Hillbrunner 45'
A. Latifi 29', 24'
J. Debrah 3'
8/24/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mainz 05 U1963%
×Draw18%
Alemannia Aachen U1919%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
2.56
Alemannia Aachen U19
1.33

Mainz 05 U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.60
Alemannia Aachen U19
1.23

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.44
Alemannia Aachen U19
2.53

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
81%
Mainz 05 U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19
82%
Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19
37%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
42%
Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
92%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
72%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
46%
Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
74%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
38%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.56

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.23 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
63%
level
18%
Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
19%

Mainz 05 U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Debrah
24'
A. Latifi
29'
A. Latifi
45'
F. Hillbrunner
52'
J. Kusi
Mainz
Alemannia
J. Kirchhoff
Manager: J. Kirchhoff
C. Wissing
Manager: C. Wissing

Match Recap: Mainz 05 U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 24, 2025.

Goals: J. Debrah (3'), A. Latifi (24', 29'), F. Hillbrunner (45'), J. Kusi (52').

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.