Alemannia Aachen U19 0–1 Mainz 05 U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mainz 05 U19

11/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 11Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1920%

×Draw20%

Mainz 05 U1960%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.19

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.18

Mainz 05 U19

2.19

Mainz 05 U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 75 away

1.12

creates per match

2.40

1.98

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

40%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Mainz 05 U19

80%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

80%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

8%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

69%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

33%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

12%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

89%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

64%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

20%

level

20%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

60%

Mainz 05 U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Alemannia

Mainz

Manager: C. Wissing

Manager: J. Kirchhoff