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Donegal Celtic vs Newington Youth — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
FT
1 – 2
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
9/16/2017Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 5Donegal Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Donegal Celtic36%
×Draw24%
Newington Youth40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donegal Celtic
1.46
Newington Youth
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Donegal Celtic
2.00
Newington Youth
1.73

allows per match

Donegal Celtic
1.40
Newington Youth
0.91

finishing

Donegal Celtic+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donegal Celtic ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Donegal Celtic or draw
60%
Donegal Celtic or Newington Youth
76%
Draw or Newington Youth
64%

Winning margin

Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
17%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
77%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
43%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
18%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
79%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
46%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
47%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donegal Celtic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donegal Celtic attack 2.00 + Newington Youth defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Newington Youth attack 1.73 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Donegal Celtic scores more
36%
level
24%
Newington Youth scores more
40%

Newington Youth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donegal Celtic vs Newington Youth

Newington Youth beat Donegal Celtic 2-1 in Premier Intermediate League on September 16, 2017.

The match was played at Donegal Celtic Park in Belfast.