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Newington Youth vs Donegal Celtic — League #561 2026

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
FT
1 – 2
Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
5/4/2018League #561League #561 · Relegation Round - 5Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Newington Youth39%
×Draw23%
Donegal Celtic38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newington Youth
1.67
Donegal Celtic
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Newington Youth
1.63
Donegal Celtic
1.43

allows per match

Newington Youth
1.88
Donegal Celtic
1.71

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par
Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Donegal Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw
62%
Newington Youth or Donegal Celtic
77%
Draw or Donegal Celtic
61%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+
20%
Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals
81%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
50%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
23%
Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
81%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
49%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)
51%
Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Donegal Celtic away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.63 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Donegal Celtic attack 1.43 + Newington Youth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newington Youth scores more
39%
level
23%
Donegal Celtic scores more
38%

Newington Youth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Newington Youth 1–2 Donegal Celtic

Donegal Celtic beat Newington Youth 2-1 in League #561 on May 4, 2018.

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.