Bangor 0–2 Portstewart: Result & Stats

Bangor

FT

0 – 2

Portstewart

10/12/2019

League #561 · Round 5Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bangor57%

×Draw22%

Portstewart21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangorExpected goals in this matchPortstewart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.11

Bangor

1.94

Portstewart

1.11

Bangor creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

2.50

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bangor

2.50

Portstewart

1.22

allows per match

Bangor

1.00

Portstewart

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par

Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Portstewart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bangor or draw

79%

Bangor or Portstewart

78%

Draw or Portstewart

43%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+

33%

Portstewart wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals

86%

Bangor 2+ goals

58%

Bangor 3+ goals

30%

Portstewart 1+ goals

67%

Portstewart 2+ goals

30%

Portstewart 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)

72%

Portstewart (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.50 + Portstewart defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.94

Portstewart attack 1.22 + Bangor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bangor scores more

57%

level

22%

Portstewart scores more

21%

Bangor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff