Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mahasarakham United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
4/2/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 31Mahasarakham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mahasarakham United51%
×Draw24%
Nakhon Si Thammarat25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mahasarakham United
1.75
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.16

Mahasarakham United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

Mahasarakham United
1.77
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Mahasarakham United
1.34
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw
75%
Mahasarakham United or Nakhon Si Thammarat
76%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
49%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
28%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
83%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
52%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
69%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
32%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
67%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.77 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more
51%
level
24%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
25%

Mahasarakham United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mahasarakham United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Mahasarakham United and Nakhon Si Thammarat drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Mahasarakham Stadium in Mahasarakham.