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Mahasarakham United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — League Cup 2021

Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
FT
1 – 4
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
11/3/2021League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mahasarakham United24%
×Draw27%
Nakhon Si Thammarat49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mahasarakham United
0.90
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.40

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mahasarakham United
1.29
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.50

allows per match

Mahasarakham United
1.29
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.50

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw
51%
Mahasarakham United or Nakhon Si Thammarat
73%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
76%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
8%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
59%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
23%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
6%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
75%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
41%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
33%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.29 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.50 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more
24%
level
27%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
49%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mahasarakham United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Mahasarakham United 4-1 in League Cup on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium in Maha Sarakham.